Which weather bureau to trust?

At long last! My long awaited vacation is finally near! Rain, rain, go away!

This Saturday, I will fly to Hong Kong for my mid-year vacation. I really need this badly because of all the stress I am piggy-backing with me. I can't even sleep straight because I kept on thinking about my work. Deadlines, reports, new strategies.. everything!

Philippines is known to have a defective weather bulletin that caused a lot of students to be stranded when CHED or other scholastic institutions failed to cancel classes because of the faulty predictions. Which weather bureau should I believe? Here are 5 different weather forecasts.

1. Pagasa - Philippines
According to PAGASA, tropical depression "Lawin" will be very near Hong Kong on August 30, 2am. They seem to have updated the image that is why the latest mark for the typhoon is Aug 29 - 8am. (Refer to image below)



2. Weather underground
Come Saturday (August 30,2008), tropical storm is still far from Hong Kong.



3. Hong Kong Observatory
According to this one, it will directly hit Taiwan on August 30,2008


4. Accuweather
It's going to be sunny on August 30,2008 in Hong Kong according to accuweather.



5. Yahoo Weather
According to Yahoo ( hoping Yahoo is wrong...), the tropical storm would bring thunderstorms from Aug 30 to Sep 3.



Which one should I trust? Do you think it will rain in Hong Kong this Saturday? Please pray to help stop rain.